Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2019 “Cracks are Starting to Appear”

KEY POINTS

  • Global growth continues to soften but expected to plateau at the end of 2019
  • Not expecting global recession on the immediate horizon
  • Australian economy vulnerable to a further downturn
  • Income from diversified portfolios expected to be lower
  • Remain nimble (cash) and very diversified

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2019: Cracks and Starting to Appear

Cracks are Starting to Appear

There are cracks starting to appear in credit and bond markets as the great recovery starts to mature. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the US economic expansion, albeit muted, has now been running for 124 months (>10 years) and has outlasted the previous 1990’s record of 120 months. Europe is also approaching….read more.

Watch Grant Patterson and Michael Ogg discuss the latest outlook in this video.

Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter “A Tale of Two Halves”

KEY POINTS

  • Central banks around the globe voicing concerns regarding slowing global growth
  • Interest rates to stay lower for longer
  • Intriguing divergence regarding the outlook from bond and equity markets
  • Australian economy soft at a household level
  • Trade concerns still overhanging markets
  • Ensure assets held can withstand a downturn
  • No change to defensive stance

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter 2019: A Tale of Two Halves

A Tale of Two Halves

There is no doubt global growth has weakened and appears likely to settle at roughly 3% for the year to June 2019. A modest rebound is likely in the second half of 2019 boosted by further global central bank easing and a possible outcome of the US and China trade negotiations. The yet unresolved impact of the US and Chinese trade war has….read more.

Watch Grant Patterson and Carlo Queddeng discuss the key points from the latest outlook.

If you have any questions please contact Grant Patterson or Michael Ogg on (02) 9239 9333 or James Smith on (03) 8793 8383.

Global Outlook and Strategy 2nd Quarter 2019 “Jib Set”

KEY POINTS

  • Global growth has clearly slowed – expect a rebound second half
  • Mixed messages regarding outlook from investment markets
  • Current central bank policies supportive of risk assets in the short term
  • Near the end of the US cycle, wary of longer-term outlook
  • Struggling to find value
  • Positioning for next downturn

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 2nd Quarter 2019: Jib Set

Jib Set

Storm jibs are a necessity when sailing off-shore in areas with a risk of high winds and heavy weather.

Global growth has weakened over the course of the past 6 months giving rise to the stunning reversal of a tightening bias to a more neutral stance from the US Federal Reserve. There are currently mixed messages from investment markets regarding the global growth outlook. We have noted volatile and somewhat misleading data points across key economies throughout the first quarter of 2019. That said, trade volumes are now showing a tepid sign of stabilizing…..read more.

Watch Grant Patterson and James Smith discussing the key points from the latest outlook.

If you have any questions please contact Grant Patterson or Michael Ogg on (02) 9239 9333 or James Smith on (03) 8793 8383.

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2019 “Recalibration”

KEY POINTS

  • Clear slowdown in global growth outside the US
  • The change in central bank policy will increase volatility
  • Record global debt a concern
  • The Australian economy is vulnerable to the housing downturn and weaker Chinese growth
  • Valuations are more attractive after the Q4 correction
  • Increasing exposure to growth assets at the margin

Click here to read the full Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2019: Recalibration.

Recalibration

The global coordinated experiment by central banks of quantitative easing (QE) is now ending. It is now slowly moving towards quantitative tightening (QT) as central banks look to unwind their balance sheets and increase interest rates. However, recent slowing in global growth and the impact….read more.

Watch Grant Patterson and Michael Ogg discussing the key points from the latest outlook.

To discuss our outlook in more detail please contact Grant Patterson or Michael Ogg on (02) 9239 9333 or James Smith on (03) 8793 8383.

Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2018 “Bad Moon Rising”

KEY POINTS

  • We are late in the cycle and expect volatility to increase
  • Valuations remain stretched coupled with optimistic long-term US earnings expectations
  • Global debt levels are elevated in an environment of increasing interest rates
  • Inflation signals are increasing and underestimated by the market
  • US/China economic tensions to start causing concerns

The winds of change are starting to be felt with strong US growth and the lowest unemployment rate since the 1960’s feeding into higher US interest rates. Additionally the rhetoric between the two largest…click to continue reading.

Click here to read the full Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2018: Bad Moon Rising.

 

Watch Grant Patterson and James Smith discussing the latest Global Outlook and Strategy in this interview:

Global Outlook and Strategy Quarter 3, 2018 “The Calm During the Storm”

KEY POINTS

  • Inflation signals are increasing
  • Markets remain remarkably complacent
  • Central banks removing liquidity
  • Interest rates trending higher
  • Global trade tensions increasing
  • Cautious stance is warranted

Read: Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter 2018: The Calm During the Storm

Watch: View James Smith, Head of Melbourne and Senior Investment Adviser discussing the Global Outlook & Strategy with Grant Patterson, Chair of the Investment Committee and Managing Director.

Global Outlook and Strategy Quarter 2, 2018 “Volatility Returns”

KEY POINTS

  • Global growth remains strong although some signs of momentum slowing
  • US bond rates to likely track above market expectations
  • Australian economy underperforming
  • Risk assets vulnerable to a sharp correction
  • Remaining defensive, patient, investing for a correction
  • Consensus view is further upside in risk markets, for now

Read: Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 2nd Quarter 2018: Volatility Returns 

Watch: View James Smith, Head of Melbourne and Senior Investment Adviser discussing the Global Outlook & Strategy with Grant Patterson, Chair of the Investment Committee and Managing Director.

Global Outlook and Strategy Quarter 1 2018: A Year of Change

KEY POINTS

  • Inflation expectations are likely to rise over the course of 2018
  • Global growth to remain strong
  • Higher bond yields and inflation will undermine elevated valuations
  • Final stages of the bull market in risk assets
  • 2018 will be a year of change
  • Potential US recession 2019
  • Diversification, quality, relative value and overweight cash the focus

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2018: A Year of Change.

Or, to hear Grant Patterson’s discussion with Michael Ogg about the “Year of Change” watch this video here.

 

 

Global Outlook & Strategy 4th Quarter 2017: Inflection Point

Key Points:

  • Inflation at an inflection point
  • Synchronised Global Growth in place
  • Extended valuations in most asset classes
  • Australian economy vulnerable to consumer shock
  • Distinct risk period ahead
  • Diversification, Quality, Relative Value and Overweight Cash Position the focus

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2017: Inflection Point. 

Alternatively watch Grant Patterson’s Global Outlook and Strategy summary in this short video.

Global Outlook & Strategy 3rd Quarter 2017: Stem the Tide

Key Points:

  • Global growth remains buoyant despite pockets of uncertainty
  • Valuations in some asset classes are very extended
  • Australian economy is sending mixed messages; outlook uncertain
  • Geopolitical concerns remain elevated
  • Remain with elevated cash and well diversified

Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter 2017: Stem the Tide 

Alternatively, you can view Grant Patterson, Managing Director, sharing the key messages of the Global Outlook and Strategy in the video below.