Valuations Matter in a Black Swan Event – Global Outlook and Strategy Q2 2020

Valuations Matter in Black Swan Events

Along came Covid-19, which was the trigger/black swan for the adjustment of valuations, not the cause in our view. If valuations were reasonable, equity markets would not have fallen 37% in 23 trading days – the fastest bear market in history. And now we have Uncle Sam Inc. to the rescue, bailing out yet again, […]

Quarterly Update with Grant Patterson and Michael Ogg

In this short video, Grant Patterson, CIO and Managing Director of Providence discusses the current outlook with Michael Ogg, Director of Providence. They present the highlights from our soon to be released Global Outlook and Strategy for Quarter 2. If you have any questions about your investments and the market outlook, please contact Michael Ogg […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020 “The Most Diversified in 20 Years”

KEY POINTS Global asset valuations are stretched on all measures Global recession fears have subsided There are some signs of stress in the operation of markets Expect higher volatility Maintain a high level of diversification across portfolios   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020: The Most Diversified in Twenty […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2019 “Cracks are Starting to Appear”

KEY POINTS Global growth continues to soften but expected to plateau at the end of 2019 Not expecting global recession on the immediate horizon Australian economy vulnerable to a further downturn Income from diversified portfolios expected to be lower Remain nimble (cash) and very diversified   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter “A Tale of Two Halves”

KEY POINTS Central banks around the globe voicing concerns regarding slowing global growth Interest rates to stay lower for longer Intriguing divergence regarding the outlook from bond and equity markets Australian economy soft at a household level Trade concerns still overhanging markets Ensure assets held can withstand a downturn No change to defensive stance Click […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 2nd Quarter 2019 “Jib Set”

KEY POINTS Global growth has clearly slowed – expect a rebound second half Mixed messages regarding outlook from investment markets Current central bank policies supportive of risk assets in the short term Near the end of the US cycle, wary of longer-term outlook Struggling to find value Positioning for next downturn Click here to read […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2019 “Recalibration”

KEY POINTS Clear slowdown in global growth outside the US The change in central bank policy will increase volatility Record global debt a concern The Australian economy is vulnerable to the housing downturn and weaker Chinese growth Valuations are more attractive after the Q4 correction Increasing exposure to growth assets at the margin Click here […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2018 “Bad Moon Rising”

KEY POINTS We are late in the cycle and expect volatility to increase Valuations remain stretched coupled with optimistic long-term US earnings expectations Global debt levels are elevated in an environment of increasing interest rates Inflation signals are increasing and underestimated by the market US/China economic tensions to start causing concerns The winds of change […]

Global Outlook and Strategy Quarter 3, 2018 “The Calm During the Storm”

KEY POINTS Inflation signals are increasing Markets remain remarkably complacent Central banks removing liquidity Interest rates trending higher Global trade tensions increasing Cautious stance is warranted Read: Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter 2018: The Calm During the Storm Watch: View James Smith, Head of Melbourne and Senior Investment Adviser discussing the […]

Global Outlook and Strategy Quarter 2, 2018 “Volatility Returns”

KEY POINTS Global growth remains strong although some signs of momentum slowing US bond rates to likely track above market expectations Australian economy underperforming Risk assets vulnerable to a sharp correction Remaining defensive, patient, investing for a correction Consensus view is further upside in risk markets, for now Read: Click here to read the Global Outlook […]