Uncomfortable Investor – Global Outlook & Strategy Q1 2021

“If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.” Carmen Reinhart, 2009 KEY POINTS • Challenging investment environment, valuations stretched • To protect & […]

20 Years of Independence – Global Outlook & Strategy Q4 2020

As we navigate through our 20th year as stewards of our clients’ capital, in this Global Outlook & Strategy, we reflect on the lessons learnt. It has been a remarkable two decades navigating the 2000 Tech Bust, 9/11, GFC and now Covid-19. What does not change is the human behavior of fear and greed. Valuations […]

“There is No Road Map” – Global Outlook & Strategy Q3 2020

“Everything is a little upside down…as a matter of fact the wheels have fallen off.” Bob Dylan After filing for Chapter 11 protection on the 22nd of May, the share price of Hertz fell to US$0.59 and the bonds, which rank higher than equity in the capital structure fell to US 10 cents in the […]

Valuations Matter in a Black Swan Event – Global Outlook and Strategy Q2 2020

Valuations Matter in Black Swan Events

Along came Covid-19, which was the trigger/black swan for the adjustment of valuations, not the cause in our view. If valuations were reasonable, equity markets would not have fallen 37% in 23 trading days – the fastest bear market in history. And now we have Uncle Sam Inc. to the rescue, bailing out yet again, […]

Quarterly Update with Grant Patterson and Michael Ogg

In this short video, Grant Patterson, CIO and Managing Director of Providence discusses the current outlook with Michael Ogg, Director of Providence. They present the highlights from our soon to be released Global Outlook and Strategy for Quarter 2. If you have any questions about your investments and the market outlook, please contact Michael Ogg […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020 “The Most Diversified in 20 Years”

KEY POINTS Global asset valuations are stretched on all measures Global recession fears have subsided There are some signs of stress in the operation of markets Expect higher volatility Maintain a high level of diversification across portfolios   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020: The Most Diversified in Twenty […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2019 “Cracks are Starting to Appear”

KEY POINTS Global growth continues to soften but expected to plateau at the end of 2019 Not expecting global recession on the immediate horizon Australian economy vulnerable to a further downturn Income from diversified portfolios expected to be lower Remain nimble (cash) and very diversified   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter “A Tale of Two Halves”

KEY POINTS Central banks around the globe voicing concerns regarding slowing global growth Interest rates to stay lower for longer Intriguing divergence regarding the outlook from bond and equity markets Australian economy soft at a household level Trade concerns still overhanging markets Ensure assets held can withstand a downturn No change to defensive stance Click […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 2nd Quarter 2019 “Jib Set”

KEY POINTS Global growth has clearly slowed – expect a rebound second half Mixed messages regarding outlook from investment markets Current central bank policies supportive of risk assets in the short term Near the end of the US cycle, wary of longer-term outlook Struggling to find value Positioning for next downturn Click here to read […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2019 “Recalibration”

KEY POINTS Clear slowdown in global growth outside the US The change in central bank policy will increase volatility Record global debt a concern The Australian economy is vulnerable to the housing downturn and weaker Chinese growth Valuations are more attractive after the Q4 correction Increasing exposure to growth assets at the margin Click here […]