Seismic Shifts – Global Outlook & Strategy Q4 2021

There are so many distortions in the current economic landscape that it is near impossible to have any clarity as to the likely outcome.  We sense that we are near the peak. Peak growth, peak earnings, peak (persistent) inflation, peak bond market performance, (after a 30- year bull market) peak liquidity, peak speculation (SPACs1, meme […]

Too big and too indebted to fail – Global Outlook & Strategy Q3 2021

We are in the hands of the central banks. What could possibly go wrong?  Financial assets are now such a large part of the global economy that, combined with the huge debt within corporate balance sheets, the collective is now too big to fail. In addition, government deficits are the highest since WW2 therefore, global […]

Sometimes it’s better to travel than to arrive – Global Outlook & Strategy Q2 2021

Global growth is expected to rebound strongly as the vaccination rollout gathers pace. This is the widely held (consensus) view. Underpinning the narrative is the huge global fiscal stimulus led by the US, coupled with excess savings, compliments of government handouts across developed markets. Sometimes the journey can be more enjoyable than the ultimate destination. […]

Uncomfortable Investor – Global Outlook & Strategy Q1 2021

“If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.” Carmen Reinhart, 2009 KEY POINTS • Challenging investment environment, valuations stretched • To protect & […]

20 Years of Independence – Global Outlook & Strategy Q4 2020

As we navigate through our 20th year as stewards of our clients’ capital, in this Global Outlook & Strategy, we reflect on the lessons learnt. It has been a remarkable two decades navigating the 2000 Tech Bust, 9/11, GFC and now Covid-19. What does not change is the human behavior of fear and greed. Valuations […]

“There is No Road Map” – Global Outlook & Strategy Q3 2020

“Everything is a little upside down…as a matter of fact the wheels have fallen off.” Bob Dylan After filing for Chapter 11 protection on the 22nd of May, the share price of Hertz fell to US$0.59 and the bonds, which rank higher than equity in the capital structure fell to US 10 cents in the […]

Valuations Matter in a Black Swan Event – Global Outlook and Strategy Q2 2020

Valuations Matter in Black Swan Events

Along came Covid-19, which was the trigger/black swan for the adjustment of valuations, not the cause in our view. If valuations were reasonable, equity markets would not have fallen 37% in 23 trading days – the fastest bear market in history. And now we have Uncle Sam Inc. to the rescue, bailing out yet again, […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020 “The Most Diversified in 20 Years”

KEY POINTS Global asset valuations are stretched on all measures Global recession fears have subsided There are some signs of stress in the operation of markets Expect higher volatility Maintain a high level of diversification across portfolios   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy 1st Quarter 2020: The Most Diversified in Twenty […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 4th Quarter 2019 “Cracks are Starting to Appear”

KEY POINTS Global growth continues to soften but expected to plateau at the end of 2019 Not expecting global recession on the immediate horizon Australian economy vulnerable to a further downturn Income from diversified portfolios expected to be lower Remain nimble (cash) and very diversified   Click here to read the Global Outlook and Strategy […]

Global Outlook and Strategy 3rd Quarter “A Tale of Two Halves”

KEY POINTS Central banks around the globe voicing concerns regarding slowing global growth Interest rates to stay lower for longer Intriguing divergence regarding the outlook from bond and equity markets Australian economy soft at a household level Trade concerns still overhanging markets Ensure assets held can withstand a downturn No change to defensive stance Click […]