A long and winding road but we’re not there yet.
“We’ve got the most complex, disparate, and cross-cutting set of challenges
that I think I can remember in the 40 years I’ve been following this stuff,”
Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, 14th October 2022.
The corrective phase still has some way to go to unwind the huge excess speculation and
overvaluation caused by unprecedented money supply. This is compliments of global central
banks and fiscal spending by governments.
The speed of change in bond markets and the surge in the USD is likely to see dislocations in
unknown areas. The ramifications and depth of hidden liabilities is yet to be seen.
Risk asset valuations at an aggregate level are fair value at best with slowing economies and
higher input and wage costs likely to see corporate earnings downgrades. However,
within the broader index, value is starting to emerge.